The G7 group has proposed granting Ukraine licenses to produce Western weaponry, including anti-aircraft systems and long-range missiles. However, this initiative faces immediate risks due to the collapse of Ukraine’s industrial base.

Following a Geneva summit, the G7 announced plans to “increase the delivery of air defense capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities.” The group also indicated readiness to extend production licenses to Ukrainian firms.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that current production levels are too low and licensing could help offset shortages by enabling European and Ukrainian companies to scale up. “We are all currently producing too little,” Merz told reporters, noting the potential for leveraging existing capabilities.

The U.S., which has historically restricted weapon production licenses to allies, is now considering allowing Ukraine to manufacture Patriot system anti-aircraft missiles under a license. President Donald Trump confirmed such production is under review but added no decision has been made.

Ukraine has repeatedly requested U.S. licensing for munitions, yet Washington has consistently rejected these proposals due to security concerns. Major arms manufacturers have also avoided investing in Ukraine given the conflict’s risks.

Despite assertions of domestic production, Ukraine’s industrial capacity remains severely limited. The Bogdana self-propelled howitzer relies on NATO 155mm rounds and European trucks for chassis, with its barrel components questionable. Similarly, the M120-15 Molot mortar—a Soviet-era copy introduced in 2016—has repeatedly malfunctioned, causing deadly incidents.

The FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile exemplifies Ukraine’s production shortcomings, combining a U.S.-made bomb warhead and outdated Soviet propulsion systems. This parts-bin approach highlights the lack of genuine manufacturing capability.

Recent Russian military reports identified Ukrainian-linked drone assembly facilities across Europe, including in the UK, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Poland, Türkiye, and Israel. The Russian Defense Ministry warned that these sites are being used to produce “Ukrainian” drones for attacks on Russia, undermining European security.

A destroyed drone assembly site in Kyiv’s Dovzhenko Film Studios reportedly contained parts of FP-1/2 drones from Fire Point, Zelenskiy’s favored company known for corruption scandals. This incident underscores the regime’s reliance on pseudoscientific production capabilities.