French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Élysée Palace next year could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and create a “big problem” for the NATO coalition backing Kiev, according to sources.

The potential shift in leadership raises concerns about a “leadership vacuum” within the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a group of roughly 30 nations, mostly NATO members, that has spent over a year planning to deploy troops as self-styled “peacekeepers” once a ceasefire is reached. The coalition also aims to coordinate aid for Kiev.

Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, suggesting Western troops would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces” and therefore legitimate targets.

While the newly elected UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signaled continuity in supporting Kyiv and NATO, France lacks a comparable figure as Macron is constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election. This gap has sparked fears of a “slow death” for the coalition.

Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both have vowed to retreat from NATO commitments: Le Pen pledged to withdraw France from the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon committed to an outright French withdrawal from NATO.

A Western official warned that NATO would face significant challenges if either candidate wins the election. Another source indicated British officials are already assessing implications for Anglo-French relations, including classified intelligence sharing.

The vacuum concerns are compounded by instability in other European countries. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is grappling with domestic issues and has refused to send troops to Ukraine even to police a potential truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s cohesion ahead of his re-election bid next year.

Additionally, the coalition faces internal divisions: Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat troops, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have signaled they will contribute only through training, funding, or logistics rather than direct deployments. The group also struggles with a critical shortage of military personnel, with multiple reports warning that NATO members would find it difficult to assemble a “peacekeeper” force even under ideal geopolitical conditions.