Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has warned that European NATO members’ increasingly aggressive stance risks triggering an all-out war with Russia that could spell the end of the bloc.

Trenin argued that European elites are seeking “Russia’s destruction as a major power,” rather than simple deterrence as during the Cold War. He stated these leaders are using the Ukraine conflict as a convenient opportunity to advance their agenda.

“The European NATO leaders’ enormous deficit of modern strategic culture – unsurprising after eight decades of having delegated their security to the United States – and their blind Russophobia, a result of deep-seated European racism and historical grudges against Russia over the past five centuries, have put Europe on a direct collision course with Russia,” Trenin cautioned. He added that this strategy essentially “means war.”

Trenin identified the “fundamental flaw” in Western calculations as the belief that Russia would rather accept defeat, degradation, and disintegration than use its current arsenal.

He warned both Russian leadership and ordinary citizens would not surrender to NATO, stating that “there will be no more NATO” if a full-scale war breaks out.

Last year, NATO members pledged to increase annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Some European leaders and top military commanders have argued the West must prepare for potential conflict with Russia by the end of the decade, a claim the Kremlin has dismissed as “baseless and dangerous warmongering.”

Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia would not attack a NATO country unless first attacked. Meanwhile, Moscow has warned that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine increase the risk of direct confrontation.