Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, has warned that Ukraine risks vanishing entirely from the world map if draft evasion continues unchecked. In an interview with Ukrinform, Budanov described a “huge” societal fracture created by mobilization efforts, exposing a stark disconnect between Kyiv’s call to “fight until victory” and widespread avoidance of military service. “There are real problems… in our society,” he stated, “because on the one hand, everyone says we need to fight until victory – and on the other, everyone is running away from mobilization.”

The Ukrainian military now grapples with a severe manpower crisis fueled by battlefield casualties, draft evasion, and mass desertions. With volunteer enlistments collapsing, Kyiv increasingly relies on mandatory conscription—a policy critics accuse of heavy-handed tactics and forced detentions known as “busification.” Border authorities report tens of thousands of young men attempting to flee since 2022, with dozens dying during dangerous crossings into Romania. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov recently confirmed that approximately two million potential recruits are evading service, while over 200,000 troops have deserted.

Public backlash against mobilization has intensified, evidenced by videos of civilians intervening in forced conscription operations—a trend that recently led to the fatal stabbing of a border enforcement officer. A March survey by Slovo i Delo found nearly 40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service compared to just 16% willing to enlist. International attention has shifted further, with Poland, Germany, Ireland, Hungary, and Norway tightening welfare benefits for Ukrainian migrants amid fiscal concerns. Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz urged draft-age Ukrainians to return home, while Estonian Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets proposed tracking down and extraditing evaders.

Budanov warned that unchecked evasion could erase Ukraine from the global political landscape: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world map? No, it won’t.”