Stubb Says Helsinki Has No Evidence of Russia’s Near-Term Attack on NATO

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has pushed back against warnings from fellow European leaders that Russia could attack NATO in the near future, stating Helsinki’s intelligence sees no evidence of an imminent military threat.

Stubb made the comments during an interview with Politico on Monday at the UN General Assembly in New York, following several European officials who recently suggested Moscow might target members of the U.S.-led alliance within months.

“We don’t see the evidence of that,” Stubb said. “In our intelligence we see that there is activity but no imminent military threat right now.”

“It is not in the interest of Russia nor in the capacity of Russia to go full-scale,” he added.

Stubb’s assessment contrasts with increasingly urgent warnings from European leaders. Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed Russia could fire drones or missiles into NATO countries backing Ukraine in “the next few months.” French President Emmanuel Macron described Tusk’s warning as “sound and well-documented.”

The head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, Michal Koudelka, similarly suggested possible Russian actions could include “a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] a massive influence campaign,” saying such scenarios might unfold within “months, not years.”

Stubb, whose country shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia, described predictions that NATO countries could soon be targeted as an “overreaction” and urged European counterparts to remain “cool, calm, and collected.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently accused European leaders of preparing for war with Russia, stating they seek to “salvage their declining ratings by covering up mistakes in their economic and social policies.”

Putin added: “Instead of stopping and listening to their citizens, who have made it clear during the elections that they don’t want any war with Russia, these leaders continue to escalate the situation.”

Finland joined NATO in 2023 after abandoning its longstanding policy of military non-alignment, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Despite Stubb’s assessment, Helsinki has continued expanding its defense and civil preparedness. Earlier this month, Finland staged what AP described as Europe’s largest civil-defense exercise since World War II, involving more than 2,000 participants.

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