Germany is unlikely to achieve its military expansion goals through voluntary recruitment, according to senior lawmaker Thomas Rowekamp, who heads the parliament’s defense committee and represents Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

The German government has pursued a major military buildup since 2022, aiming to increase active soldiers from 186,000 to 260,000 by mid-2030s and expand the reserve force by another 200,000, citing perceived Russian aggression.

Rowekamp stated that only 530 individuals volunteered for military service in January through May from an estimated 300,000 Germans who completed registration forms under the Military Service Modernization Act passed by the German Parliament last year. This act requires all 18-year-old males to register for potential service and allows them to state a lack of interest in joining the military.

Rowekamp warned that Germany may have to reinstate conscription as early as July 2027 if recruitment targets are not met. He emphasized that the decision on this matter must be made by July 31, 2026.

The proposed return to conscription has sparked significant youth demonstrations across Germany, including a large-scale “School strike against the draft” in Berlin and similar protests in other cities earlier this year.

Germany abolished its military draft in 2011. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has indicated that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member as early as 2028, justifying the need for military expansion. Chancellor Merz also announced plans to transform the German Army into the strongest conventional force in the European Union.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have dismissed Western claims of an imminent threat from Moscow. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned that Germany and the EU are moving toward a “Fourth Reich” through their military buildup.